Honestly, I'm not 100% sure what the rules for differentiation are here. I understand the rules for qualifying: "A new artist is defined as any performing artist who releases, during the eligibility year, the recording that first establishes the public identity of that artist as a performer."

But once we've established that these five nominees are new artists, uh, then what?

Is it based on best release? That seems wrong. The Band Perry had one in the eligibility year. Skrillex had multiple. Besides, if it was best release, I imagine the Academy would've made this category Best Album by a New Artist.

So the award criteria is likely more inclusive than that. And if no one's going to box me in, well, I'm making my own rules. Below is my formula, where each factor on the right side of the equation is an admittedly qualitative analysis that I'm just going to assign a number.

Best New Artist = [release(s)] + [originality] + [solo/band potential] + [influence potential].

And with that, the nominees for the Best New Artist Grammy are:

The Band Perry

Bon Iver

J Cole

Nicki Minaj

Skrillex

I vote for Skrillex.

I think he's the one with the most potential to influence the careers of others, which significantly weights the right side of the equation in his favor. And that's not just because he's a producer in addition to being a solo artist. It's also because, of the five, his sound is most likely to push artists around him. He's ushering in a post-David Guetta world. The other nominees had solid releases. Nicki Minaj will sell more records (an acknowledgement that's not at all criticism). And Bon Iver will probably receive more critical acclaim. But which one of them sounds like the beginning of something new?